Vegas Odds Nascar Daytona 500
Daytona 500 odds. Denny Hamlin 10-1. Ryan Blaney 12-1. Chase Elliott 12-1. Joey Logano 12-1. Bubba Wallace 12-1. William Byron 14-1. Brad Keselowski 14-1. Kyle Larson 14-1. 2021 Daytona 500 odds, drivers, predictions: Surprising NASCAR picks from same model that nailed Hamlin's win SportsLine simulated the 2021 Daytona 500 10,000 times and locked in surprising picks.
The Monster Energy Cup Series kicks off the 2020 NASCAR season at Daytona International Speedway Sunday afternoon for the Daytona 500 at 2:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Daytona 500 betting odds and lines, with NASCAR picks and tips.
The weather forecast is always important for NASCAR races, particularly in the early part of the season when the rains are a little more prevalent in the East. The good news is the temperatures will be in the mid-70’s with just a 20% chance of precipitation for the first Monster Energy Cup Series race, and really the worst day for weather for Speedweeks appears to be Friday. While the Gander Outdoors Truck Series race might be affected Friday night, the Xfinity race Saturday and MENCS race Sunday look to be good to go barring a change to the forecast.
The latest NASCAR odds have two drivers at +900, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, as the favorite to win the Daytona 500. If you have never bet on NASCAR before, that means a $10 wager on Daytona 500. BetOnline.AG has the odds this week for us. Let’s make our pick to win the Daytona 500. These are some seriously good odds for any Denny Hamlin race much less the Daytona 500 which he won last year. His odds to win most of the races he was in last year were around +500 and he paid several times. Get a look at the betting odds and lines for the 2020 Daytona 500, including drivers who are not among the favorites but might be good value picks. NASCAR betting: Odds, lines for 2020 Daytona 500.
Who is going to win the 2020 Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway?
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Wednesday at 9:45 a.m. ET.
Last season’s Daytona 500 winner, Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin (+1000), as well as Hendrick Motorsports driver Jimmie Johnson (+2000), are the only active drivers with multiple victories at the Daytona 500.
According to NASCAR’s Loop Data, Johnson has an 85.3 Driver Rating over his past five starts at DIS, which includes the July summer races, to rank fifth among active drivers while leading 14 laps and running 57.1% of his rotations inside the Top 15.
Looking to place a bet on this race or other motorsports? Get some action in the NASCAR race through BetMGM. Sign up and bet at BetMGM now!
If you look at the Loop Data for just the past five Daytona 500 races, Hamlin goes from outside of the Top 10 in Driver Rating for all races, to second. He has a 99.4 Driver Rating over the past five February races at the track while leading a circuit-best 151 laps. He has also run 70.2% of his laps inside the Top 15 in the past five Daytona 500s. Hamlin not only won the 2019 installment of the Great American Race but also the 2016 version, too.
Penske Racing driver Joey Logano (+1000) is actually listed as a co-favorite with Hendrick’s Chase Elliott, Hamlin and JGR’s Kyle Busch (+1000). Logano tops the charts over the past five Daytona 500 starts with a 102.7 Driver Rating while leading 61 laps and running 80.7% of his laps inside the Top 15. He has managed a 4.2 Average-Finish Position (AFP) during the five-race span, too. Logano averaged 161.939 mph in his 2015 victory at Daytona, the fastest average speed since Dale Earnhardt Sr. won Feb. 15, 1998 with an average speed of 172.712 mph.
2020 Daytona 500 longshot bets
JTG Daugherty’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+2000) is on the pole for Sunday’s race, the eighth consecutive season a Chevrolet leads the pack out. He’ll be right ahead of Hendrick’s Alex Bowman (+2000), who will be on the outside of Row 1. In the past four Daytona 500 starts, Bowman is closing in on a winner. He has averaged a 1.5 Average-Start Position while registering a 9.5 AFP. That’s good for a 93.4 Driver Rating, so he’ll be one to watch as he looks to earn his first checkered flag in the Great American Race. His best-ever finish in the 500 is 11th, so he’ll be looking to improve upon that dramatically.
Stenhouse leads all drivers with a 95.9 Driver Rating across his past five starts overall at Daytona International Speedway, leading 97 laps. While he isn’t rostered on one of the ‘power’ teams at JTG, he does have a Hendrick motor under his hood, so don’t discount him. Traditionally he has fared well at the superspeedways.
Don’t forget about Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon (+3500), the 2018 winner of this race. In 15 career starts at DIS he leads all active drivers (at least two starts) with a 15.1 AFP with seven Top 10 finishes in 13 starts.
Want some action in this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.
Follow @JoeWilliamsVI and @SportsbookWire on Twitter.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.
The 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season gets underway on Sunday, February 14th with the 63rd running of the Daytona 500 also known as “The Great American Race.”
The Daytona 500 is NASCAR’s Super Bowl as it’s the most popular race for the circuit. It’s right up there with the Indy 500 as the most recognized race in America.
Chase Elliott capped off an impressive 2020 season by winning the Cup Series championship. He will look to defend his title by starting off the season with a big win. Furthermore, Denny Hamlin is trying to win this race for the 3rd straight year.
Team Penske is viewed by Daytona 500 betting sites as the top team this weekend with all three of their main drivers in the Top 5 odds on favorites.
Add Harvick, the Busch brothers, Joe Gibbs Racing, the return of Kyle Larson, and the big wreck at the end of the race, and we have a lot of excitement for the first race of the 2021 Cup season.
Race Profile
The first ever Daytona 500 was held in 1959 and won by Lee Petty. Since 1982, it has been the first race of the season for the Cup Series.
The track itself is an adaptable venue with multiple layouts for various types of race. For the Daytona 500, the layout is a traditional tri-oval with a lap length of 2.5 miles. Turns are at a banking of 31 degrees and the straightaways are at 18 degrees.
The following is a breakdown of this week’s race:
- Total Miles: 500 miles
- Total Laps: 200 laps
- Stage 1: First 65 laps
- Stage 2: Second 65 laps
- Final Stage: Final 70 laps
The Daytona 500 is set to begin at 2:30PM ET and will air live on FOX.
The beginning of it all starts now 😈 #DAYTONA500 @NASCARpic.twitter.com/BNE7HzSn2s
— Phoenix Raceway (@phoenixraceway) February 11, 2021
What to Watch for at Daytona
With all of the excitement heading into the first weekend of the 2021 season, the following storylines are worth keeping an eye on at Daytona:
- Can Denny Hamlin win a 3rd straight Daytona 500?
- Will Team Penske dominate as the odds indicate?
- How will Bubba Wallace do with a new team?
- How will Kyle Larson do in his return to NASCAR?
- Will Martin Truex Jr. get his first Daytona win?
- Remembering Dale Earnhardt Sr.
Previous Daytona 500 Winners
As mentioned, Lee Petty, father of Richard Petty, won the first ever Daytona 500 but it’s his son “The King” who holds the record for most Daytona 500 wins with seven. Cale Yarborough is second with four wins.
Denny Hamlin, who has won the last two Dayton 500 races, is looking to tie Yarborough with his 4th career win in this race.
The following is a list of the previous Daytona 500 winners dating back to 2005:
- Jeff Gordon in 2005
- Jimmie Johnson in 2006, 2013
- Kevin Harvick in 2007
- Ryan Newman in 2008
- Matt Kenseth in 2009, 2012
- Jamie McMurray in 2010
- Trevor Bayne in 2011
- Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2014
- Joey Logano in 2015
- Denny Hamlin in 2016, 2019, 2020
- Kurt Busch in 2017
- Austin Dillion in 2018
NASCAR Daytona 500 Betting Odds
The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:
- Denny Hamlin (+700)
- Chase Elliott (+900)
- Ryan Blaney (+1100)
- Brad Keselowski (+1100)
- Joey Logano (+1100)
- Kevin Harvick (+1300)
- Kyle Busch (+1400)
- William Byron (+1600)
- Kyle Larson (+1600)
- Aric Almirola (+1800)
- Alex Bowman (+1800)
- Martin Truex Jr (+1800)
- Kurt Busch (+2000)
- Bubba Wallace (+2000)
- Austin Dillon (+2500)
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr (+2500)
- Ross Chastain (+2800)
- Matt DiBenedetto (+3000)
- Christopher Bell (+3300)
- Ryan Newman (+4000)
- Chase Briscoe (+5000)
- Chris Buescher (+5000)
- Cole Custer (+5000)
- Erik Jones (+5000)
- Jamie McMurray (+6600)
- Daniel Suarez (+10000)
Daytona 500 Betting Favorites
According to most NASCAR betting sites, the following drivers are considered the odds on favorites to win the 63rd running of the Daytona 500:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Avg Start | Avg Finish | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | 3 | 10 | 11 | 16.4 | 16.3 | 3 |
| Chase Elliott | 0 | 1 | 1 | 11.0 | 24.3 | 4 |
| Ryan Blaney | 0 | 2 | 4 | 13.7 | 20.2 | 5 |
| Brad Keselowski | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19.4 | 23.2 | 10 |
| Joey Logano | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15.5 | 18.2 | 6 |
Denny Hamlin (+700)
- Top 5 (+155)
- Top 10 (-180)
Denny Hamlin is the man to beat at Daytona this weekend. Not only is he the clear betting favorite, but he has won the last two Daytona 500s and three overall in his career. However, that’s not all as Hamlin has been on a tear at this track over the last seven years.
Since the 2014 Daytona 500, Hamlin has seven Top 3s, eight Top 5s, nine Top 10s, and three wins. He’s also led laps in 11 of those 14 races.
As @dennyhamlin gets behind the wheel this weekend, he chases history in the 2021 #DAYTONA500.
Narrated by @Rodney_Harrisonpic.twitter.com/wInLaap2JJ
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) February 8, 2021
In addition to winning the Daytona 500 last year, he also finished 3rd in the second event at this track.
Of all the drivers for this race, Hamlin is the one that you can feel the most confident in. His ability to navigate the big wrecks at the end of the race and his consistency make him a solid bet to finish Top 10, Top 5 and challenge for another checkered flag.
Chase Elliott (+900)
- Top 5 (+190)
- Top 10 (-150)
Chase Elliott had a brilliant 2020 season. Not only did he dominate at the road courses, but he would go on to capture what might be the first of many more Cup Series championships to come.
Unfortunately, that success hasn’t translated over to the Daytona racetrack. In 10 starts at this track, Elliott has just one Top 5 and Top 10. That came last year in the second race at the Daytona International Speedway (DIS).
In his other nine races at this track, Elliott’s best finish has been 14th. He has four DNFs in 10 starts which spanned all four races in 2018 and 2019.
He also has the worst average finish among the favorites at 24.3, which really concerns me heading into this weekend.
I’m a fan of Elliott and believe he will contend for another title this year, but he will have to do that by digging himself out of an early hole.
Elliott’s ceiling is a Top 10 and I believe his odds for this race are overvalued. Avoid betting on Elliott this weekend.
Ryan Blaney (+1100)
- Top 5 (+225)
- Top 10 (-125)
Blaney enters the 2021 season having made the Playoffs each of those years and finishing in the Top 10. Last year, he finished 9th overall. Of the three Team Penske drivers, Blaney is the one who has yet to win at Daytona.
He has fared better than Elliott with two Top 5s and four Top 10s in 11 starts. But, he does have 5 DNFs including three in the last five races at DIS.
Last year, Blaney showed that he was able to overcome his early struggles at Daytona with a 2nd in this race and a 6th in the second race. These results have NASCAR betting sites believing that he could be a contender on Sunday.
I like Blaney to finish inside the Top 10 and challenge for a Top 5 spot. However, I don’t have a great deal of confidence in the #12 car winning this weekend.
Brad Keselowski (+1100)
- Top 5 (+225)
- Top 10 (-125)
Keselowski finished the 2020 season as the runner up to Elliott. He also had the 3rd most wins last year with four and was one of the most consistent drivers with 24 Top 10s.
At Daytona, Keselowski does have a victory which came in the 2016 summer race. However, since then, his best result was 10th in the second DIS race last year. His luck at this track since then has been atrocious with six DNFs in eight races.
For his career, Keselowski has three Top 5s, five Top 10s, and a 23.2 average finish which is the second worst among the favorites.
The biggest reason why I don’t believe Keselowski will win is the fact that he has 10 DNFs in 25 career starts. Six of those DNFs have come at the Daytona 500. The #2 car’s ceiling is a Top 10 result. I would also avoid wagering on him for the race win.
Joey Logano (+1100)
- Top 5 (+225)
- Top 10 (-125)
Finishing right behind his teammate in the standings last year, Logano was 3rd overall with three race wins and 21 Top 10s. It was a quietly successful season for the 2018 Cup Series champion who had similar numbers to his championship year.
Unfortunately, like his teammate Keselowski, Logano has a race win and a lot of bad luck since that victory.
Logano won the 2015 Daytona 500 and does have three Top 5s along with five Top 10s in the 10 races since then. However, he also has four DNFs in the last seven DIS races including crashing out of both events at this track last year.
I like his chances of finishing in the Top 10, possibly even a Top 5, but I have a hard time pegging Logano as a real threat to win this race.
The Best Daytona 500 Betting Value
The following NASCAR drivers offer betting value for the Daytona 500 due to their current betting odds and their past success at this track:
| Driver | Wins | Top 5 | Top 10 | Avg Start | Avg Finish | DNF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 10 | 15 | 14.3 | 17.6 | 8 |
| Kyle Busch | 1 | 8 | 9 | 15.0 | 19.4 | 9 |
| Kurt Busch | 1 | 13 | 18 | 19.0 | 18.5 | 6 |
| Austin Dillon | 1 | 2 | 7 | 14.0 | 15.5 | 2 |
Kevin Harvick (+1300)
- Top 5 (+265)
- Top 10 (-110)
Harvick dominated the 2020 season and was the favorite to win the championship, but struggled in the round of 8 and ended up missing out on the Final 4 race. He finished 5th in the standings, but led all drivers with 9 wins, 20 Top 5s, and 27 Top 10s.
It was his best season in his 20 year career other than not winning the championship. At the Daytona International Speedway, Harvick has two wins, 10 Top 5s, and 15 Top 10s. But, he hasn’t had a great deal of success in recent years and he hasn’t won here since the summer of 2010.
In his last nine DIS starts, Harvick has five DNFs and three finishes outside of the Top 20. However, he did finish 5th in last year’s Daytona 500.
I think Harvick will start off strong again in 2021 and not only crack the Top 10, but also finish with another Top 5 result.
Kyle Busch (+1400)
- Top 5 (+275)
- Top 10 (+100)
Who Is Favored To Win Daytona 500
One driver that I feel will have a strong 2021 season is Kyle Busch. The 2019 Cup champion had a pathetic 2020 season with just one win and his lowest stats since 2015. He finished 8th, which was the lowest finish since 2014.
The only thing that Busch accomplished last year was extending his streak of at least one win in a season to 16 straight years.
With that said, I believe we’re going to see Busch return to the top of the sport and that starts with a solid performance at Daytona. In 2019 when he went on to win the title, Busch finished 2nd in the Daytona 500.
Last year, he crashed out and finished 34th. In fact, he scored a DNF in both Daytona races last year, which perfectly summed up his season as a whole.
In 31 starts, Busch has one win, eight Top 5s, nine Top 10s, a 19.4 average finish, and nine DNFs.
In 2016, he finished 2nd in this race. In 2017, he was 38th. In 2018 he was 25th. I like Busch to be a Top 10 car that cracks the Top 5 as he survives the big wreck.
Kurt Busch (+2000)
- Top 5 (+350)
- Top 10 (+125)
The older Busch brother didn’t finish too far behind his sibling last year as he was 10th overall at the end of the season. He also had one win and almost as many Top 5s and Top 10s as his brother. Kurt has won a race in seven straight seasons including the 2017 Daytona 500.
At DIS, Busch leads all active drivers in Top 5s (13) and Top 10s (18). However, he has crashed out of five of the last seven Daytona races. His lone finishes were 25th in 2019’s Daytona 500 and 10th in the summer race that year.
When you’re racing in #SpeedweeksbyAdventHealth, you’ve gotta look the part. 🎨
Check out @KurtBusch’s ride for #TheClash and @jamiemcmurray’s ride for the #DAYTONA500! @adventhealth @SpireMotorsportpic.twitter.com/hMvY57sF0h
— Chip Ganassi Racing (@CGRTeams) February 8, 2021
The #1 car was 6th in 2013, 5th in 2015, 1st in 2017 and 10th in 2019 for this race. Do you see the trend here?
Since this is an odd year, I like Kurt Busch to have another Top 10 result and challenge for a Top 5 spot along with his brother.
Austin Dillon (+2500)
- Top 5 (+450)
- Top 10 (+140)
Dillon made the Playoffs last year for the 5th time in his career. However, he finished 11th overall and has yet to crack the Top 10 to finish a season.
Dillon is the 2018 Daytona 500 winner and has seven Top 10s in his 15 starts. His 15.5 average finish is the 2nd best among active drivers behind Bubba Wallace’s 14.9 average finish. That’s better than Denny Hamlin and all of the other betting favorites for this weekend.
In the Daytona 500, Dillon finished 9th in 2014, 14th in 2015, 9th in 2016, 19th in 2017, 1st in 2018, 16th in 2019, and 12th in 2020.
Other than his 31st place result in his first ever Daytona 500 back in 2013, Dillon has showed great consistency in this race.
I think there’s great value in Dillon’s Top 10 odds. Furthermore, I think he’s worth a flier to finish in the Top 5.
On a side note, it would be fantastic if the #3 car returned to victory lane this weekend on the 20th anniversary of the passing of Dale Earnhardt Sr. who made the #3 car an iconic symbol of the sport.
The Top Longshot to Win the Daytona 500
Erik Jones (+5000)
- Top 5 (+800)
- Top 10 (+250)
Erik Jones had a rough 2020 season as he didn’t win a race, failed to make the Playoffs, and lost his spot with Joe Gibbs Racing.
Now, Jones will look to rebound with a new team and a new mission – to win more than one race. It also happens to be that one of Jones’ two career race wins was at this track where he captured the checkered flag in the summer race of 2018.
In eight starts at DIS, he has one win, two Top 5s, and three Top 10s. He also has one DNF, which came in the second DIS race last year.
I think Jones is a longshot worthy of a very small flier. I would avoid his other wagers.
The Rest of the Field at Daytona
The following drivers are worth keep an eye on as they make their way through the field:
- William Byron (+1600) – Byron will start on the front row alongside his teammate Alex Bowman. He has one win, two Top 5s, and three Top 10s in six DIS races. He won last year’s second DIS race.
- Kyle Larson (+1600) – Larson only has four Top 10s in 13 starts, but he’s worth keeping an eye on this weekend after being reinstated by NASCAR and joining Hendrick Motorsports.
- Aric Almirola (+1800) – Almirola will start third on Sunday and won at this track in the summer of 2014.
- Alex Bowman (+1800) – Bowman only has two Top 10s in nine starts, but he will start on the pole this weekend.
- Martin Truex Jr. (+1800) – Of all the top drivers in the sport today, Truex has done the worst at Daytona. He has never won at this track and only has three Top 5s along with five Top 10s in 31 career starts.
- Bubba Wallace (+2000) – Wallace will drive for the new race team owned and operated by Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin. Bubba’s 14.9 average finish is the best among active drivers.
Best Bet for a Top 5 Finish
Denny Hamlin is tied for the 3rd most Top 5s with 10. However, he’s done that in eight to nine less races than Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick. Furthermore, since 2014, he has three wins, eight Top 5s and nine Top 10s.
In the last four DIS races, he has two wins and three Top 5s. At +155 odds, I really like Hamlin to crack the Top 5 this weekend and contend for another checkered flag.
Best Bet for a Top 10 Finish
As mentioned, Kurt Busch leads all active drivers with 13 Top 5s. However, he also leads all active drivers with 18 Top 10s.
Busch has had some rough performances over the last few years at this track. But, he did finish 10th in the 2019 summer race and he won the 2017 Daytona 500. Prior to that win, he had a stretch of Top 10 finishes in four of five DIS events.
At +125 odds, I think there’s some value for Busch to finish in the Top 10 and I really like his chances this year.
Daytona 500 Checkered Flag
As most avid NASCAR fans know, races at Daytona and Talladega are filled with wrecks in the final laps. These crashes typically collect a dozen or more drivers and really impact who wins the race. They also make it hard to pick a winner.
My Top 5 drivers are Denny Hamlin, Kevin Harvick, Austin Dillon, Kyle Busch and Ryan Blaney.
Hamlin is looking to become the first driver to ever win three straight Daytona 500 races, but I think he will come up short. Blaney has yet to win at Daytona and I don’t see that happening this weekend either.
In an exciting finish to the #BuschClash, it was @KyleBusch taking the win after @ChaseElliott and Ryan @Blaney collided in the final chicane. #SpeedweeksbyAdventHealth @NASCAR
📰: https://t.co/pE6oaDItXxpic.twitter.com/IKCE7zxoHh
— Daytona International Speedway (@DAYTONA) February 10, 2021
I believe the winner will be a driver who has won previously at this track. With that said, I believe the winner will come from Dillon, Harvick and Kyle Busch.
Dillon has the highest odds of the three and is worth a small flier. But, I really like Busch or Harvick to win. Both drivers are going to be extra motivated this year.
Harvick won this race in 2014, but wants to seek revenge on the field for not making the Final 4 race last year. Busch had a pathetic season in 2020 and would love to make a big statement to kick off 2021. Plus, he has never won a Daytona 500.
I see that changing for the #18 car this weekend as I am betting at NASCAR betting sites on Kyle Busch to survive the big wreck, get some help from Hamlin and win his first ever Daytona 500.
My Top 5 Drivers
- Denny Hamlin
- Kevin Harvick
- Austin Dillon
- Kyle Busch
- Ryan Blaney
Daytona 500 Betting Recap
Betting Value:
- Kevin Harvick (+1400)
- Kyle Busch (+1400)
- Kurt Busch (+2200)
- Austin Dillon (+2800)
Vegas Odds Nascar Martinsville
Longshot
- Eric Jones (+2500)
Winner
- Kyle Busch (+1400)