Derby Picks 2015
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- Apr 30, 2015 Kentucky Derby 2015 picks: Carpe Diem a popular pick among experts American Pharoah is favored, but many experts are looking to the 9-1 choice for a Derby alternative. By James Pennington Apr 30.
- Ocho Ocho Ocho won his three 2-year-old outings, then started 2015 by finishing eighth, 15.5 lengths behind winner and Derby contender Dortmund in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 7.
Free Derby Picks
If you’re a bettor, this is the place to read about the sleeper of the Kentucky Derby. Expect for everyone to bet on Bob Baffert’s two horses Dortmund and American Pharoah , leaving room to make money on horses besides the top two. The only horse to give these two a challenge is Simon Callaghan’s Firing Line. His experience in the prep races with Dormund is going to be valuable, and there is no better jockey than Gary Stevens to help guide him to the winners circle. Like last year, the West Coast horses will be the favorites. Here are our top 3 horses of the Kentucky Derby
Derby Dosage
American Pharoah (SHOW): American Pharoah will head into the Derby as the morning line favorite at 5-2 with Victor Espinoza on board. Espinoza will look for his second-straight Derby win and trainer Bob Baffert will look for his first win at the Run for the Roses since 2002, where he won it with War Emblem, who was also ridden by Espinoza. American Pharoah has left no doubt that he will be the clear favorite by post time. The only obstacle he will have is history. Not one horse coming out of the No. 17 spot has ever won the Derby. American Pharoah is No. 18, but since Stanford scratched, he will come out of No. 17 spot. Pharaoh will need to come out clean off the gate to get near the rail after the first furlong. He hasn’t had to battle too much, especially after a romp in the Arkansas Derby. This time, he’ll be challenge by the best 3-year-olds in the country.
Dortmund (PLACE): The massive colt Dortmund will look to follow the steps of his sire Big Brown (2008 winner) by winning the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Dortmund has been on a tear, winning all six of his races, including four graded stakes. At the Santa Anita Derby, Dortmund had no challenge whatsoever, but in the two races before the Santa Anita Derby, he had to battle our top pick of the Kentucky Derby, Firing Line. In Las Vegas, people are betting heavily on Dortmund to finish on top of the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Firing Line (WIN): Third time is a charm! Trained by Simon Callaghan, Firing Line will upset both American Pharoah and Dortmund at the 141 Kentucky Derby. We don’t understand how the only horse who has given Dortmund a challenge is at 12-to-1. In their past two meetings, Firing Line lost to Dormtund by less than a length. People are going to bet on both the favorites so much that Firing Line might get a very attractive price at 20-to-1 or more! To back up this horse even more, Gary Stevens will get the mount. You couldn’t ask for a better jockey for the 3-year-old. Stevens has more experience than any other jockey entered at the Derby. “A lot of these guys weren’t even born when I won my first Kentucky Derby,” said Stevens. If he wins this race with Firing Line, the story lines of a potential Triple Crown will be endless. For the money, it is too hard to not bet on Firing Line.
Apr 29, 2015 Share American Pharoah enters Saturday as the odds-on favorite to win the 141st running of the 2015 Kentucky Derby, receiving 5-2 odds. The horse is followed closely by Dortmund at 3-1 odds.
2015 Florida Derby Picks and Analysis - Taking a shot against Upstart
Florida Derby-G1
Race 14, Gulfstream Park, Saturday, March 28, 2015
3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8-miles, Dirt, Purse: $1 Million
Florida Derby Picks
1. Itsaknockout
Current Derby Odds
2. Materiality
3. Upstart
4. Ami’s Flatter
Florida Derby Analysis
Derby Picks 2015 Results
Note: Be sure to check out Ken’s Louisiana
Derby Picks running today!
Stakes everywhere today including a packed card at Gulfstream Park highlighted
by the 68th running of the Florida Derby-G1, one of our favourite Kentucky
Derby preps.
Upstart is the logical favorite in Gulfstream Park’s signature race after
a 2 3/4-length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes on February 21, but he
could be ripe for an upset. He was disqualified and placed second in the
Fountain of Youth for interfering with fellow Florida Derby entrant Itsaknockout,
and the latter could have more upside than the favorite.
Itsaknockout was moved up into the win spot in the Fountain of Youth, which
left him with a perfect 3-for-3 record, and this time he’s brought reinforcement
in the form of his speedy stablemate Materiality, who has already proven
himself in a minor stakes at Gulfstream going the Florida Derby distance.
Kentucky Derby Picks Free
Both Itsaknockout and Materiality are trained by Todd Pletcher, and while
we’ve never been big Pletcher fans when it comes to the Kentucky Derby,
his one-two punch in this year’s Florida Derby could result in an upset
if they can get perfect rides.
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The race sets up with three speed horses including Jack Tripp, Indianaughty
and My Point Exactly setting the pace, with Materiality sitting right behind
that trio waiting to pounce. If jockey J R Velazquez avoids a duel he has
a chance to get the jump on both Upstart and Itsaknockout into the stretch
at decent morning line odds of 7/2. The question is whether he can handle
the class raise when the big guns come running.
While Upstart deserves to be favored off physical wins in the Holy Bull-G2
and the Fountain of Youth under J L Ortiz, his effort in the latter race
was simply not that impressive. He drifted out and bothered Itsaknockout
as that one was trying to go by him in deep stretch before finally drawing
out late. We were expecting better of Upstart that day and we’re not sure
whether he bounced in his second start off the layoff or whether some cracks
are starting to show.
Itsaknockout is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and he does have the
angle of a horse making its second start up in class after a good effort
on the class raise. He’s worth a play on that angle alone, and if we can
get him home first or second with stablemate Materiality the exacta price
will be excellent.
Derby Picks 2015 Nfl
We’ll take Itsaknockout on top in the Florida Derby exacta with Materiality
and Upstart underneath and reverse the exacta for half the amount. We’ll
take a similar stance in the trifecta and superfectas but will use all on
the bottom in the fourth position in the superfecta. And we’ll take a small
extra exacta box on the two Pletcher horses.
We’ll let odds determine which Pletcher horse we’re betting to win. If
Itsaknockout is below 2-1 and Materiality is 4-1 or better, we’ll likely
take a shot on Materiality to get a perfect trip and sneak away in early
stretch, saving just enough to hold on late. He did post a triple digit
Beyer Speed Figure in his last race, so he does have enough talent. We’ll
just have to hope his jockey doesn’t go dumb-dumb on us and get into a duel
early in the race. Of course, that’s never happened before.
Derby Picks 2015 Week
NOT!